Global and Domestic Market Overview
A volatile session on the Lal Street ends with marginal gains, as the Nifty reclaims 25,700. Sensex and Nifty ended higher for the 2nd trade session, and all major indices closed in the green. The Nifty closed above the 25,700 mark, with Infosys, L&T, and SBI leading the pack. The Indian markets consolidated on the Nifty’s weekly expiry day, with a mild positive bias. Most Asian markets were shut, but the Indian markets did well, though participation could be relatively lower because many traders globally would be on holiday.
What was performed today was the Nifty Bank, which continues its strong showing. The PSG banking names were the ones that really led the way. The tech-related names have been smashed out of shape year to date, but they’ve bounced back. The second index that came in for selling was the Metal Index.
Top Gainers and Losers
The Nifty top gainers include ITC. Post the duty hike, the stock had seen a sharp correction, but reports suggest that price hikes have actually taken place, which will offset some of the duty hikes. Adani Enterprises also did well, and from the defence names, BEL was a stock that did pretty well.
The tech index, which fell to around 31,300 just a couple of trading sessions ago, has bounced back in trade. IT stocks rebounded but gave up some gains in late trade. Today, the one that led the way was Infosys, following its Investor AI Day, which allayed concerns about the survival of tech stocks in India. Because of that, Infosys was up, alongside HCL Tech, which participated on the upside, and Tata Elixir from the broader markets, which did pretty well.
The index that has been glittering is the Metal Index, but it came under pressure from profit-taking. The Dollar Index is mildly stronger, most Chinese markets are shut, and these stocks have run up a goodish amount over the last three months. Hindustan Zinc, Nalco, and MCX all saw some profit-taking.
From the broader markets, there were a few winners. Paytm did well, as the PhonePe IPO could potentially help Paytm re-rate, which could explain why the stock was up 2.5% to around 3%. Delivery also did pretty well after seeing a sharp correction. A couple of losers included SRF; the stock was down after the promoter said on the exchanges that they are looking to sell close to 3%, which weighed on the stock. Swiggy came in for profit-taking, and BSE was under some pressure. BSE sold off yesterday and again today, under pressure as regulators are tightening their grip on various activities, particularly in the F&O space. Net-net, the positive bias continues on the Nifty, with 25,250 to 25,400 serving as an important support zone. The number of advancing stocks is outweighing the number of declining stocks, making portfolios feel quite good.
The AI Opportunity and Corporate Strategies
Infosys and Anthropic Partnership
Infosys has a strategic partnership with Anthropic to bridge the gap in agentic AI and on complex enterprise solutions. Through this partnership, both companies will help sectors such as telecommunications, financial services, manufacturing, and software development enhance their AI capabilities.
Chairman Nandan Nilekani has reassured investors that companies like Infosys are not missing out on the AI opportunity; there is no opportunity gap. The AI opportunity is bigger than ever before, but there are cautions regarding execution risks, requiring a laser focus. The risk lies not in opportunity but in execution. Technology is evolving faster than enterprise deployment and adoption. While it is easier to achieve productivity gains for an individual task at the project level—what is called “green field” task-level productivity—achieving them at the enterprise or organisational level is very complex.
For the first time, Infosys has quantified the total addressable opportunity (TAM). CEO Salil Parekh highlighted that AI-first services present a $300 to $400 billion business opportunity by 2030, identifying six emerging AI pools to capture that growth. While AI productivity compresses IT services, there is a clear view that the massive opportunity will drive growth in the coming years.
HCL Tech on AI Disruption
HCL Tech CEO Vijay Kumar stated that AI disruption has thrown up new opportunities and maintained that fears of obsolescence are overdone. The company recognized AI as a major disruptor years ago and proactively embraced it, building a strategy to future-proof the business. The focus is on building intellectual property to bridge the gap between LLMs and reasoning models and on understanding how they can be applied in the enterprise world. Physical AI alone can unlock a billion-dollar revenue stream for any company.
The technology is moving very fast, but enterprise adoption is gradual and rightfully so. In a real enterprise, there are many complex installed systems, so it is not as easy as plug-and-play. Fears of obsolescence for the Indian IT services sector, sometimes referred to as the “saspocalypse,” are exaggerated. Service providers have a great deal of trust with big enterprises and possess the vital context within them. If pursued aggressively, there are many new opportunities, and the industry will get through this very successfully.
Cisco and the Era of Digital Co-workers
Cisco President Jeetu Patel noted that AI companies have moved on from making chatbots to generating AI agents. The industry is moving from a first phase of chatbots intelligently answering questions to agents conducting tasks fully autonomously. AI agents are essentially digital co-workers that will be augmented to our teams, functioning as part of the team in the way they work.
This evolution starts with knowledge work, but as physical AI and robotics advance, this will be seen across every sector as additional capacity is added to the current human corpus. The capability overhang is real, and the exponential curve of these innovations is very real, but organisations take a while for the absorption rate to actually catch up. By 2026, organisations’ absorption rates are expected to catch up with the pace of AI. Tremendous progress is already being made in areas like coding and development that would not have been thought possible six months ago.
India has a tremendous advantage in population demographics, with the largest number of people under 30 in the workforce. Rather than AI taking jobs away, humans will use AI capacity to their benefit, unlocking a unique and tremendous amount of innovation potential in India. Cisco is doubling down in India like never before.
Government Perspectives and Broader Integrations
Former NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant believes IT service providers will remain relevant as they integrate AI models into the business. AI developers like Anthropic will require integrators to embed this technology in companies; in the long run, they will require companies like HCL Tech, Infosys, or TCS to do so. Kant called on companies to invest much more in research and development and to adapt to future disruptions that require deep engineering.
IT Minister Ashwini Vaishnav expects India to attract investments worth $200 billion over the next 12 months as he bets big on the AI opportunity. Based on global industry discussions with infrastructure players and VCs, these investments are highly likely, and the government has promised a front-foot approach to AI.
Corporate Announcements and Sector Updates
Life Insurance Commission Models
The top brass of life insurance companies have proposed a deferred commission model to the regulator IRDAI. Companies suggested that 40-50% of front-loaded commissions be paid over 5 years. Life insurers have also proposed reducing absolute commissions by 10 percent. The insurance regulator has sought three-year distributor-wise commission data from insurers by the 23rd of February.
Auto Sector EV Developments
Auto major Maruti has announced competitive pricing for its first battery-electric vehicle, the eVitara electric SUV. The car will be priced at just under 11 lakh rupees in a battery-as-a-service mode. Customers can book the vehicle with an initial payment of 21,000 rupees at Nexa showrooms.
Pharmaceutical Dynamics and Weight-Loss Drugs
LILI India’s head, Winslow Tucker, has stated that they are encouraged by the reception to its weight-loss drug Monjaro in India since its launch, but the work is far from over. The focus right now is scaling operations in India and addressing unmet needs. A “We Now Know” awareness campaign has been initiated to educate on the stigma and encourage patients to consult a healthcare professional.
Despite the impending expiration of the patent on a key weight-loss drug ingredient later this year—with semaglutide going generic in March—this will not affect market share. There is no generic for trisepatide, which has a very different profile. As a dual agonist (GIP and GLP), this mechanism has proven superior to semaglutide alone, both in weight reduction (surpassing 5) and in glucose control (surpassing 2). The intrinsic value of trisepatide strongly differentiates it in the marketplace.
Global Geopolitics and Diplomacy
India-France Bilateral Relations
French President Macron began his visit to India with a morning jog at Mumbai’s Marine Drive. Prime Minister Modi hosted Macron for bilateral talks, where India and France are expected to strengthen their defence partnership.
US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations
A second round of negotiations between US and Iranian officials has begun in Geneva. Tehran is willing to discuss curbs to its nuclear programme but refuses to accept zero-uranium enrichment. US President Donald Trump has said he will be indirectly involved in Washington’s talks with Iran, stating he believed Tehran wanted to make a deal over its nuclear programme. Meanwhile, Iran has said it believes that the US position on the nuclear issue has become more realistic.
Appeal for Imran Khan
Cricket legends have appealed to the Pakistan government for immediate medical attention and humane treatment of Imran Khan. Sunil Gavaskar and Kapil Dev joined hands with 12 other former international captains to make the appeal. Khan has been in jail for over two years and has lost 85% vision in his right eye.
