Nifty Market Analysis and Prediction for October 23, 2025
Overview of Market Movement and Muhurat Trading
Nifty has been trying to cross the 26,000 level for two days but hasn’t succeeded. The market was closed for two days. After a calm of two days, something big is about to happen in Nifty, Bank Nifty, and Sensex tomorrow. The biggest good news is that our “Gift Nifty” is showing above 26,000. But the big question is whether Nifty will really cross 26,000 this time, or will it crash or trap traders by making them buy. In today’s video, I will clarify whether the market will create a new all-time high or if this is just a trap.
First, I want to talk about our Muhurat trading analysis. You remember what I told you. I spoke directly and said if Nifty opens higher, which is likely on Muhurat trading day, then we might see a fall. So pay more attention to the put side. What happened? All three indexes opened higher and then gradually closed negative.
Today, I will give you a view on all three indexes for tomorrow, October 23. Tomorrow is the Sensex expiry day. I will explain which hero or zero option might appear in the expiry. I will also discuss FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) and DII (Domestic Institutional Investors) buying and selling recently, US market futures and recent closings, and other news.
Tell me in the comments if you are holding call options for tomorrow. Call options might do well with gap-up chances.
Market Strategy and Institutional Activity
Quick review – I told you the strategy for Muhurat trading with technical analysis: typically, the market opens higher, but profit-taking comes quickly, leading to a put bias. Nifty gapped up and closed negative with a 90-point fall; Sensex fell about 250 points twice.
Now FII and DII activity: On October 21, FII bought about ₹96 crores, and DII sold ₹607 crores for the first time. No worries, though. Since October 15, FII has been buying continuously for 5 days, which is a positive sign for us. This is why the market is making high after high.
FNO (Futures & Options) activity: On October 21, ₹57 crores were bought in index futures, ₹4776 crores in index options, and ₹75 crores were sold. Overall, the net is buying. Figures show ₹87,827 crores buying in index options month-to-date and ₹7,800 crores buying in index futures, which is positive.
US Market and Global Updates
US market update: Yesterday, the market was strong; the Nasdaq was slightly negative, the Dow Jones was optimistic, and the US30 and US500 closed positive. There has been strength in the US markets over the last two days.
Biggest news: Let me show you “Gift Nifty”, which is at 26,300 price. This suggests a high chance of a gap up, but the extent of the gap up is uncertain. So be ready because a gap-up is probable.
Upcoming news: UK CPI inflation data expected around 4%. If inflation is high, the Bank of England might delay rate cuts, which could affect global markets. This is not big news that will drastically impact Indian markets, though.
Gold prices fell about 5% yesterday. Don’t rush to buy gold or silver now. Warren Buffett advises being fearful when others are bullish. Many are buying gold wildly but expect a price correction.
Technical Analysis Summary
The market has been gapping up and trending up. On October 20, the market gapped up and formed a box pattern. Currently, the market is overbought, with a high Put-Call Ratio (PCR), suggesting increased profit-taking opportunities.
No one knows precisely where profit booking might come from, but the market is volatile with a positive overall trend. Buy on dips but be cautious. Mistakes can lead to losses.
Nifty Chart and Strategy for October 23, 2025
Nifty chart analysis: Nifty broke its multi-month resistance box pattern with green candles, but formed a slight negative candle on Muhurat trading day, which is not big. “Gift Nifty” shows a gap-up chance.
If the gap-up doesn’t happen and it breaks the 25,940 level, it can easily reach the 26,000-26,200 levels. The current price for a 26,000 strike call with a 30 30-point stop loss looks good.
Gap downs are unlikely, as the data suggest otherwise. Gap-ups have happened on consecutive days (20th and 21st). “Gift Nifty” shows 26,300, indicating a ~400-point gap up, but the Gift Nifty premium usually stays above the actual spot price. So expect a gap up around 26,100-26,150.
Use the 5-minute candle strategy during a gap-up: mark the first 5-minute candle’s high and low. If high breaks, the market may go up slightly; if low breaks, gap filling is likely (price drops).
The market is overbought, so gap-ups might trap traders who buy early, and then the price falls. Be cautious.
Golden statement: If the first 5-minute candle breaks out to a high and the price rises in the first half, expect profit-taking in the second half. If the gap doesn’t fill, a range will form, and theta decay will happen. Follow the candle strategy strictly.
If you hold call or put options for tomorrow, exit within 5 min if needed. New traders and those who trade BTST (Buy Today Sell Tomorrow) should be extra careful.
Nifty is expected to hit a new all-time high around 26,270, but the first half might rise, and caution is needed in the second half for profit booking.
Sensex and Bank Nifty Analysis
Sensex analysis: Currently on an uptrend line, likely to rise. Sensex all-time high around 85,900. If a gap-up doesn’t happen but the box pattern breaks high, Sensex can comfortably go above 84,600.
Use the 5-minute candle strategy here, too—gap down unlikely.
If gap-filling happens, don’t take heavy trades. If gap fill occurs and price approaches 25,900-26,000, watch for a support base.
Sensex might gap up near 85,000. If so, buy 200 ITM put options with a 50-point stop-loss for protection.
Samsung stock shows a similar trend.
A gap up might trap traders by creating false buying opportunities that later turn into price drops.
Follow candlestick patterns for reversal signals: bearish hammer, shooting star, and a consolidation breaking below its low might indicate selling pressure.
Bank Nifty analysis: Bank Nifty has broken all-time high, may gap up near 58,000-58,700. Use a 5-minute candle range strategy. Profit booking is possible at the top.
Maintain caution for profit booking in the second half.
